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A Fly in the Ointment

The plan to activate NA-219 has taken a bit of a setback. In the weather forecast last night this appeared – out of nowhere… So I’m writing this not only to keep you up to date but as an aid to decision-making.

  

You can see from the legend that this is what the forecaster has called ‘a significant weather event’! The last event like this was yesterday – it resulted in tornadoes reported in Miami, FL.

It’s a long way out and the forecast may change however, it’s causing me to think twice. We plan now to leave Thompson Bay, Long Island on Friday for a 54 hour trip direct to Cay Sal. This also will be in strong winds (20-30kt) that are due to moderate to 15kt by the time we arrive at Cay Sal on Sunday morning. 

To get into the Florida Keys by Tuesday lunchtime, we could leave on Monday night when I QRT but I’ve again been recommended to leave on Monday morning to ensure I get in a safe place with time to spare. That would mean effectively only being QRV for maybe 5 or 6 hours after a 54 hour trip with only occasional naps. So as you can see it’s going to be a tough decision as to whether it’s worthwhile or not.

However, a lot can change between now and Monday so I’m leaning towards leaving on Friday by which time the timing and severity of this ‘event’ will become more clear. I’ll only know what’s going to happen as each new forecast arrives – fingers crossed!

73!

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